Let The "Race" Begin

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I expect both of them to run, and I can only hope that one of those two secure the nomination. Palin and Gingrich have so much in common... they love the tea party... they hate Obama... they have 60%+ favorability ratings among Republicans... and they both have around 50% unfavorability ratings among the population at large, meaning while either has a shot at winning the primary, neither has a real shot at winning the election.

Only problem for Newt, is that he's a longshot to win the nomination.

 

Newt would be a fool to run -- he'll lose badly to anyone the Dems put up. Sarah's only hope is the idiot female vote. Smart people of both genders won't vote for her, and I would imagine that dumb men aren't likely to either. But if she pushes "girl power" she might garner a few votes.

I'd like to see Romney take it, but as I have said before, his religion rules him completely out, IMHO. Who's that preacher from the South? Same thing, his religious beliefs (and in his case, much more blatant use of them in the public sphere) will cost him swing votes.

I don't know who that leaves for the Republicans to field.

 

Huntsman. I don't think religion will be a stopping point for either him or Romney. Romney has a better grasp of domestic and Huntsman is much better at foreign politics (especially China). It was rumored Huntsman was givin the Ambassadorship to China in a effort to keep him out for 2012 (the Obama administration believes him to be a big threat).

I think Newt will do well, it's been a while since he was in the political limelight and everyone has forgotten how idiotic he could be. Huckabee keeps stepping on his own crank. If Sarah had a crank it would be mashed to hamburger by now.

 

Or Tim Pawlenty. Or Mitch Daniels. Or even Haley Barbour. As I've aluded to before, all of the '08 candidates have some major issues that may be a problem to them getting elected, whether it's Gingrich, Palin, Huckabee, or Romney. A fresh face may be their best bet.

 

I think Gingrich is dreaming. I find it hard to see how a thrice-married serial adulterer who cheated on his cancer-stricken wife expects to win the evangelical vote. There's more than enough embarrassment from the Clinton years to be drug up by his primary opponents to count him out.

I also think Huntsman (who I really like) and Romney (who couldn't be more phony if he tried) will be hamstrung by the religious right, most definitely. They still think Mormons aren't Christians, and no amount of insisting "but the title is 'The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints!" has made much of a dent in that in over a decade of trying. Romney's exposure has helped, but I fear not enough. Neither will be acceptable to the Tea Party wing, either – Huntsmen for his impurity (for even accepting the Obama admin post at all) and Romney for essentially being the father of "Obamacare."

Tim Pawlenty has his own Willy Horton skeleton, so I count him out completely. I doubt he will even run.

Mitch Daniels is very impressive to me, but I take that as a sign that he doesn't have a chance with GOP voters. Intelligent, pragmatic, non-partisan conservatives just aren't very popular right now. I doubt he will run either.

Huckabee and Palin have repeatedly stepped on their puds, it's true. But not in ways that matter to the GOP voting base. They are easily the most well-known (with the possible exception of Gingrich). They still know how to hit all the right culture-war notes. They are both anti-establishment, but if they garner enough support the establishment should back them. I think both are guaranteed to run and they'll be the ones to beat. Neither can beat Obama.

I still think Marco Rubio will get drafted to run. I think he'd do pretty well, too. But we'll see.

 

I wonder from whom exactly he wants to take back the "government and the country from? Democrats? Liberals? People he doesn't agree with? All the above? ...And we thought the "country" was all of us. I didn't know it just belonged to Republican, conservative, middle-aged white dudes.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42200373/ns/politics-decision_2012/

 

Newt has too much baggage so I don't consider him feasible. I would love to see Palin win, but the media would never let that happen. Romney was a pretty good governor, but he saddled us (in MA) with universal health insurance that is becoming more and more problematic every year (so much for cost savings). Jindal may be decent, but as of now nobody really knows who he is, he is way to quiet. The guy I would love to see, but he swears that he doesn't want the job is Christie of NJ. He is a fat guy, which is a change of pace, and he seems to really tell the truth and is willing to do things that he knows needs to be done and are unpopular with everyone. I respect that.

 

Don't you love this country?

You mean the "media" that Sarah actually works for:

 

I agree with that. I'm not sure who is going to emerge as the front runner for the Republican nomination, but I think he's a long shot at best.

Never mind the media - the American people will not elect her. In a recent poll, not only does Palin have "unfavorable" scores above 50% (even by those no good liberals at the WSJ), but now it appears herpopularity is declining among Republicans as well.

I think Romney's biggest problem is securing the nomination in the first place without the help of Christian Conservatives, who might have a real problem voting for a Mormon. I'm no fan of Romney, but I have no problem with his Mormonism.

Remember... as Jindal would be first to tell you, "Americans can do anything." Ever since his "response" to Obamas SotU address a couple of years back - which was panned by Republicans and Democrats alike - pretty much took him off the list as a ready for prime time presidential candidate.

I agree - I also think Rubio would make a pretty good candidate - but he hasn't shown any interest in running either. I've said it before and I'll say it again - the Republican's best chance at winning back the White House in 2012 is going to force them to think outside the box a bit. Recycling someone that the public already knows well would be a big mistake. I think that's one of the reasons I cannot totally blast Pawlenty's decision to have a go at it - few people outside of Minnesota knows who he is.

 

In a move surprising no one, Barack Obama announced his 2012 re-election bid. I suppose it's done as a matter of course, but for the first time since 2000 (Gore won the primary convincingly that year), the Democratic presidential nomination will not be contested.

I find it somewhat stunning that no Republican has formally announced yet. There are several "exploratory committees" out there, and it's not unusual for them to turn into presidential bids (most do), but it's odd that no one has announced in what will be an open Republican primary.

 

Can't it be contested? I can imagine quite a few democrats on the left not being too happy with Obama, and at least wanting to put some pressure on him not to forget about them.

 

It can be contested, it's just that historically it isn't. And even on the rare occassions where it occurs, the sitting president almost always wins renomination. Even Jimmy Carter, who was very unpopular by the time the primaries for the 1980 presidential election rolled around defeated Senator Ted Kennedy pretty convincingly. Obama is nowhere near that unpopular.

While it is probable that some Democrat will offer some token opposition, we won't see anything like we did four years ago in the Barack-Hillary nomination process. Obama will likely not even campaign in the primaries (although he certainly will for the general election), and will still win easily.

 

I think if anyone challenges Obama from the Dem side, it'll be Don Quixote.

Er...I mean Dennis Kucinich.

 

Well I thought it Lent just meant (and I had only intended my embargo to be) the month of March. Which I screwed up last week, anyway.

But hey - I'm not catholic, so - baby jeesuz wuz like 'whutevs.'

 

You know, the more I think about it, the more convinced I am that Sarah Palin is NOT going to run in 2012 - or possibly ever. It just seems to me that of all the stuff that has happened in the last four or so years, she enjoys her current lifestyle, both financially and with the idolization heaped upon her by the 20% or so of the country that adores her. Once you run (and in her case inevitably lose), a lot of that goes away.

Let's face it - when running for president, it's pretty much a one-shot deal. Very rarely does someone win the nomination, lose the general election, and then get another shot at it four years later. In fact, I cannot recall it happening in my lifetime. The closest we came was when Gore considered another presidential run in 2004, and that was likely because he probably should have won the first go-around.

 

Yep. And saying that she will NEVER run will make it go away as well. She sure does broadcast that she wants to run though....

The lunatic to watch, Michelle Bachmann. Or maybe Donald Trump...is this really the Republican Party?

 

Michelle Bachmann may very well run, because she's losing her seat in Michigan. Michigan lost two electoral votes (or was it three?) when the Census results were published last month, and her district is one of them that is getting axed. So she may be looking for a new job anyway. I don't think she has any serious chance at winning though.

 

While I doubt enough people would support Bachman for top billing, she has a pretty good chance of at the number 2 spot. Unlike Democrats, who prefer to pair together center-left candidates, the Republicans like their presidential and vice presidential candidates to represent different aspects of the party. The very conservative (by 1980's standards) Reagan rounded out his ticket with the moderate H.W. Bush, H.W rounded out his ticket with the neo-conservative Quayle, and the religious conservative G.W. Bush rounded out his ticket with the more pragmatic Dick Cheney.

Democrats on the other hand have lately fared better when pairing two more moderate candidates together. Center-left Clinton picked center-left Gore, center-left Gore picked then-center-left Lieberman, and center-left Obama picked center-left Biden. Since a tea-partier almost certainly won't get the Republican nod, we can reasonably expect one to get the number 2 spot.

 

Drew - Then we can probably expect Obama to be reelected. I still believe the major factor McCain did not win was Sarah Palin. Otherwise, it would have been very, very close.