How will the United States fall? Who will take their place?

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I'd second the "not with a bang, but with a whimper" sentiment...

However, I think its naive to assume that the US is going to stop being a major superpower as it is at the moment within the next decade.

I'd say the imminent downfall of the US is something that will happen over the next 20-30 years...mostly because of economic reasons.

The dollar is falling regularly, American economy is ailing and gradually, the US isn't going to be as much of a bully in the play ground as it used to be post WW2 upto early 21st century.

Who's going to replace the US? My bet is not on one particular country per-se, but a balance of economic power between the EU and China...sort of like...this part of the world is mine, that part is yours.

This is all conjecture of course, and who's to say good old Dubya won't just wage war on everyone who doesn't think he's top dog?

 

If they find time from fighting each other... And as I said, Asia, especially far east is my favourite candidate

 

Again, only in a recent period of less than 100 years. That is such a short period of time to be saying 'things can never change'. Other empires lasted much longer and seemed even more invulnerable, but history has shown that the same things happen again and again.

 

It's not as easy as it used to be but to start a company in the US is a lot less expensive than in many european contries and a lot less complicated.

As far as i know the worlds two bigest companies is from the US, Wal-Mart and lockheed martin. If you think carefully a lot is produced by the US or the benefit ends up in the US.

 

Actually, the second largest company in the US is GE (General Electric) but certainly Lockheed is nothing to sneeze at. And I hear Boeing is pretty big too.

 

Boeing sure is a big company but the big diffrence is that boing just makes airplanes while lockheed makes the whole kit.
However thier aircraft sucks but thats out of the question here.

By big i meant the total turnover of the company not the number of employees or profit.

 

How could I forget... Microsoft!!!

Bill Gates pwns all!

 

I wouldn't get excited about Wal-Mart being the saviour of the nation. The whole function of that company is to gather up billions of dollars from Americans and send it over to China in return for a tonne of consumer junk that will be worthless in a few years time. The next question is, what will the Chinese do with all that US currency?

 

Hollywood? Box Office revenues are down and show no signs of getting any better. Why go to the movies when you can download or buy a pirated copy?

Coke and Pepsi? Fast Food? I'd like to think people are shifting to healtheir diets.

Sportswear? You mean the cheap knock-offs produced in Thai sweatshops?

Computers? You mean the cheap knock-offs produced in Taiwan?

China will almost certainly overtake US technology production. You can't throw a rock in the US without hitting an unemployed engineer. Where'd his job go? To China, of course.

 

The US will be top dog for many decades to come and long before any "fall" I think we will have multi-polar world. USA, EU, China, India and perhaps another player or two.

Hopefully these players will co-exist peacefully until the world finally gets its act together and start eradicating the artificial boundaries that today is keeping people apart and instigating conflicts.

I honestly cant see any major major conflict arise within the next few decades, sure the US might trounce a few more minor powers but I hope and I think that the major powers are smart and pragmatic enough to see the detrimental effect it would have for all involved.

As it is the US has only really had domiance for the last two decades and already their power is being contested. Not really by any decrease of US power but by a rise of others. The EU will integrate and probably turn into a mellow financial giant with little interest in foreign affairs. China will continue to grow until they either wreck their environment completely or figure out that they have to do something about it and have to spend ****loads of resources in cleaning up the place. India, well, I dont know it just seems like they are bound to ascend soon. Starting to get a reasonable big and well educated middle class which tends to lead to general improvement. Other regions with potential is South America mostly because they are starting to be due to some success. Russia and neighbours might rise again.

What I dont think we will see within a long future is a single hegemon but rather many regional hegemons and as I said hopefully we will unite and reach for the stars!

 

It's still a multi million dollar business, piracy or no

Think again, people in the US are heavier than ever, and Europeans are not far behind. You don't believe that comes from visiting the salad bar, do you ? Fast food was, is, and will always be big business.

Yeah, those, and Nike and co are making millions off of them, ain't that smart ?

That i doubt very much, personally i wouldn't settle with cheap Asian computerproducts, simply because my experiences with those tell me that it's better to pay a little more and get quality for my money. The same applies to electronic devices like TV's, stereo's, cars, etc... I wouldn't accept a Korean DVD player if they'd give it to me for free, and not without a reason, their products suck to put it blunt.

Perhaps, but as long as those moldy old communist fossiles remain in charge, China is nothing but another paper tiger.

 

A paper tiger with a police state system of government, billions of people and therefore heaps of manpower, massive production capabilities, a nuclear arsenal and is modernising its cities at a remarkable rate.

It is anything but a paper tiger. China has more influence in New Zealand, an english speaking country, than the USA.

 

I think the notion of America as an 'empire' is just plain stupid. Empires are the result of military conquest.

A nation being preeminent does not necessitate that nation being a dominating and aggressive entity. That sort of cynicism is the product of a worldview based upon ancient history rather than modern economics. The beauty of economic growth is that it is a win-win relationship. There is a rising tide, and all boats are lifting---at this moment the Chinese and Indian boats are rising the quickest. And that is why I own stock in an Indian Bank (Go ICICI!).

 

The idea of military conquest can be looked at from many angles. A fair amount of the US economy was built upon the foundations of a massive slave labor force during and after the colonial years. You don't need to hang around in a country to reap the benefits of having conquered them, rather you can just steal their peoples and use them as cheap/free labour.

America was formed 'by' conquest a few hundred years ago when those small colonies expanded into towns and forts and eventually cities and swallowed up the lands surrounding them. You don't need your flag to be raised over the government building of a country to reap economic benefits from that country.

Besides, in this day and age it is almost impossible to conquer any country, at least in a way that would be profitable unless you're looking at a long term investment but democratic governments have a habit of looking towards the 'now' rather than the later since they constantly try to remain in power by keeping the citizens happy and future planning type policies have a habit of beeing brilliant in the long run but in the short term no government would remain in power if being forced to use the slogan "Yeah, times are tough now but your children will thank us for it... now shut up and eat your carpets!"

 

...and beef costs $5 a pound because of cattle rustling...

 

So America would be exactly where it was today if it never had the slave labour of the past? It would be foolish to assume that slaves didn't contribute to the States' economic situation, although we'll never know what it would have been like if there weren't slaves one would imagine that the economic situation wouldn't be the same as it is today.

 

A big part of the USA's strong economic position arose after World War II when they rapidly become one of the world's biggest debtors (everyone owed them loads of cash). Half a century later and they are now one of the world's biggest creditors (they owe money all over the place - luckily all those holders of US Treasury Bills are too scared to cash them in all at once because it would send the value of the dollar - and therefore their assets - plummetting)

 

Your statement is by all means true (somewhat). However it will take long before China becomes a "super-power". The people of China will not work witht the non-exsisiting rights that they have today for long. Every countrys economy becomes hit by the blow of socialism as soon as thier wealth beging to grow much.

China will go through the same procsess as us, people will se that others have so much better standards then them so in the end there will be a revolution. The government can't stop information about the world from getting to China forever.