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Hackers & Global Warming

Discussion in 'Alley of Lingering Sighs' started by pplr, Nov 30, 2009.

Page 10 of 10
  1. Blades of Vanatar

    Blades of Vanatar Vanatar will rise again Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Blades of Vanatar, Jan 15, 2010
    #181
  2. coineineagh

    coineineagh I wish for a horde to overrun my enemies Resourceful Adored Veteran

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    [​IMG]
    Why are you bringing this up again??:hmm:
    We discussed why the tree ring data in recent decades was discarded. It was discarded, not because it didn't fit Mann's theory, but because it didn't fit the obseved global temperature measurements. The theories as to why tree rings diverge in recent times are varied (acid rain, decreased drought sensitivity, the theories vary, and are unconfirmed as yet), but it seems to be a response to the changing climate at least. If it is shown that tree rings no longer track with global temperature, while they did in the past, then it is reasonable to discard them. Doing so for the entirety of tree ring data would be undesirable, since tree rings were an accurate representation of temperature before recent times. I'll repeat yet again, that Mann's methods were published and explained in peer reviewed journals, and withstood proper scrutiny. But since you don't trust scientists to uphold the scietific method, it's a pointless argument.:sosad:

    :skeptic:But nothing new is posed in your rehashed argument, so it seems that you either forgot the explanation and re-used this ammo, or simply didn't understand it.
     
    coineineagh, Jan 16, 2010
    #182
  3. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    The problem with using a proxy that doesn't track with modern temperatures when you don't know why is that you then don't know that it is accurate as a proxy for temperature when you don't have direct measurements to compare it with. In my opinion it would not be desirable to keep tree rings as a proxy when you can show that it does not track with modern measurements without being able to explain why and what effect the reason would have on the proxy in the past (if any). But I'm not a climatologist, so my opinion is pretty worthless ;)
     
    Blackthorne TA, Jan 16, 2010
    #183
  4. NOG (No Other Gods)

    NOG (No Other Gods) Going to church doesn't make you a Christian

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    Sorry, wrong data discard. I suppose I should have been more specific in my post, but I did specifically mention CO2 concentration data, not temperature, so I hoped that would be enough. What I'm actually talking about are the established scientific records of CO2 concentration from the 1800s until the 1950s (when Mann did his first major survey of CO2 concentrations). Mann discarded all but a few cherrypicked data-pieces from the past because they were 'unreliable'. Why? Just because they used an older method of measuring, one that was still in use in other fields at the time, because it was acceptably accurate. Oh, and the few pieces that did survive were also using the same method, but apparently were 'more reliable' because they fit his expected trend.

    Unfortunately, though, there's no better proxy. Icecores are nice, but give data in the thousand-year range, not the decade range, and that's not very useful. On top of that, of course, they're only useful where ice forms and stays year-round dependably. Tree rings work wherever you have trees, except that they aren't a direct measurement but rather a proxy that may also be influenced by other factors.
     
    NOG (No Other Gods), Jan 16, 2010
    #184
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