Elections in Iran

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Unless you have personally counted away all the votes and made sure they were each honestly counted you don't know who actually won the election and are making guesses based on whatever media you see.

Like I said before, no matter what any nation says there is little reason to accept a rigged election result if the election has been rigged. This is an issue about Iran and if people living in Iran have a vote that counts. Other places can comment but the rights at stake right now seem to be those of the Iranian people and the possibility that they are being threatened by Iranian leaders. Leaders who are perfectly capable of (and may be right now) running their own media campaign as they try to shut down media that may provide evidence that confirms or proves false their statements.

Like I said before, Iranian leaders banning media hurts their credibility with me.

 

You're entitled ... still, you may be interested in reading this article: Western Misconceptions Meet Iranian Reality

 

From what I've been reading about the power structure in Iran these last couple of days, it seems like the election isn't that important beyond the symbolism. Iran looks suspiously more like a theocratic dictatorship with democratic window dressing.

 

Ragusa, that seems like the most one-sided assessment of the situation I have heard yet. He seems to assume everything the Guardian Council says is the absolute truth.

There is one good point, though: No matter how common or popular the "libralized democracy" movement is in Iran, it isn't a pro-American movement. It is a pro-Iranian movement, just the Iran they want as opposed to the Iran they have. They would still likely have heavily entrenched religious involvement in the government, though it may be more secularized than it is now. They would probably still seek uranium enrichment, though perhaps a bit more openly than they do now. They would still hate Israel, though perhaps less vehemently than they do now, and may not support terrorism as much as they do now. By and large, though, their movement seems to be far more concerned with Iranian matters than international ones, which should surprise no one.

I, for one, would prefer an Iranian government that had legitimate proof of popular support (as opposed to this skechy situation) even if it kept all the same international positions it has now.

Aldeth, yes, that's what I've been hearing since the topic of Iranian politics first came to my attention some years ago. All the experts seem to agree about that. The question is, how much does it enjoy popular support?

 

Interesting read. Now it seems not to agree with a different evaluation here.

http://juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html

Now it appears there are different intelligent and presumably knowledgeable people commentating on the election and coming to 2 very different conclusions.

So we don't have agreement on if the election was rigged. Correct?

What I have repeatedly commented on before was that the banning of the media harmed the credibility of Mr. Ahmedinejad and that of the people backing him in the government of Iran.

And there is a general consensus that members of the Iranian government who favor Mr. Ahmedinejad are trying to ban media and information flows. Correct?

 

Ragusa - I would like you to consider these points:

1. I don't recall ever using the term "democracy" in any of my rants. I was only commenting that people have a longing for freedom, regardless of where they are from. It is something most of us have in common.

2. Given the amount of American apathy towards world events, most of us here were probably wondering why McCain thought we were "all" now from a Sounthern state on the east coast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(U.S._state)

3. I was wondering what a "Berliner" looked like.

4. If you don't believe this election in Iran was rigged, then you are a salesman's dream come true.

 

I really think it depends on how you define "rigged" as well. In a country where there is a history of bad things happening to people who don't support the government, I do not find it hard to believe that two-thirds of the population voted in favor of the current President. It wouldn't require tampering with ballot boxes, over or under reporting results, or even strong arm tactics - just a history of scare tactics.

 

My understanding is that Ahemdinejad is nothing more than the supreme leader's "yes man," and that he was so good at the job, that the SL decided to keep him around for another go.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/31393148#31393148

 

It's also my understanding that no one wants Ahmadinejad to stay in power more than Israel. They need him. They can't justify their saber rattling and hard-line stance against a reasonable moderate like Mousavi. They need a barking lunatic that requires no villainizing as an adversary. You don't have to convince anyone outside of Iran that Ahmadinejad is a threat who must be rallied against.

 

Yes, my bad. Liberty and democracy are different things.

Outpunned!

Well, there you are. They are indeed called Berliner, even though the silly East Germans for some inexplicable reason call them 'Pfannkuchen'. They don't look like anything you make in a pan, but they apparently just have to call it by another name. They're filled with plum or strawberry marmalade. Tasty.

I am a reasonably good salesman I am also reasonably sceptic. I remember I held the view that Iraq had no WMD in 2002, when it wasn't cool to say that, because, after all, everbody knew that Saddam had WMD, after all everybody was talking about them as if they were there, so there must be something to it ... I was right.

 

Yes, you were right - Because everyone now knows there are WMDs in Iran and elections in Iraq.

 

Sort of-ish

 

Interesting comments on why the poll may not have actually indicated Mr. Ahemdinejad would win a first round vote outright.

The following comments by people claiming to be from Iran could be lies but they give some arguments as to why opponents to Mr. Ahemdinejad should have more votes than the poll indicated.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2009/06/irans-election-the-odds-of-fraud.html#comments

 

Ragusa - It seems the "crackdown" on the opposition has begun. IMO, the Republic is demonstrating just how cowardly and currupt it is. I will be wearing green all day tomorrow in solidarity with those in Iran who are fighting for their freedom and against those tinhorn dictators who "rule" in Iran with the blood of their citizens on their hands.

What a shamful regime. If the regime does crush the oppostion in this manner, I hope Isreal does bomb their "treasured" nuke sites into Oblivion. It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of bullies, IMO.

http://shooresh1917.blogspot.com/

 

As someone elsewhere put it--it's great that conservatives in Iran use the US the same way conservatives in the US use Iran.

 

Perhaps but more to the point of the people themselves.

If anyone could pass along my good wishes and praise for those Iranians who are protesting just because they want honest elections I would appreciate it-especially to any who may have suffered or been beaten up for it.

 

Well, it appears the Grand Poobah of Iran has ordered an end to protests "OR ELSE," complete with his melodramatic "weeping," which I guess he does on occasion for effect.

The old fool is a typical tyrant. I always felt we invaded the wrong country...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31440649/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa//

 

I tend to think the same thing. It's really difficult to predict what's going to happen in the coming days. I'm frankly surprised the uprising has lasted this long - both the people still staying strong (and the crowds are increasing!) and the state security forces staying their hand. It will be interesting to see if they really do start cracking down, what will happen. The protesters outnumber the security forces by about 10 to 1, but guns and riot gear tend to neutralize that advantage somewhat.

We'll see. This is all fascinating to see play out, though. I really hope the people get what they want. At the end of the day though, no matter what happens, 3 things will be certain to remain unchanged: 1) Iran will still be an Islamic theocratic state, 2) they will still pursue nuclear capabilities, and 3) they will still be at odds with Israel. The best hope the West has, I think, is for the Iranian government to finally recognize the need to embrace modernity and join the rest of the world, which is what the vast majority of their people obviously want. The best shot they have at achieving this, in my opinion, is with Mousavi leading. They can still be a conservative Islamic state and do that, and the west can still deal with them rationally and constructively. Otherwise, we keep perpetuating this endless cycle of isolation and war posture, which isn't really benefiting anyone.

 

One thing to bear in mind re: state security forces is that the military and bog standard police are not the least bit inclined to go drown a riot in blood. Now, the militias and Revolutionary Guard...