Bomb in London

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Bion,

... only if people again forget that Iraq and the fight against Al Quaeda are two separate fights.

Robert Scheuer quite rightly described al Quaeda as a global islamist insurgency. Bush's attack on Iraq only fuels the salafi perception of the Muslim World being under attack from the West.

Attacking Syria and Iran would make it even worse, the fact that the U.S. don't even have the troops neccesary put aside. But since when has the secondary point that a plan is outright stupid deterred the neo-cons from pursuing it, as long as it only looks splendid on Powerpoint!

They continue their vocal demonisations of various evils only because they're afraid of running out of enemies one day. Demons allow them to recycle the cold war template into the all-new GWOT template.
It makes politics so convenient that it would be a shame to lose it, horrors, without it you might end up justifying or explaining yourself for the policies you pursue! They just point at a bogeyman and say 'That's why!' and use that as a fit-all justification.
That doesn't mean Al Quaeda isn't a real enemy, it is, but that the obvious problem with Al Quaeda has nothing to do with Iran or Syria.

As for the rsik of war and Blair ... I think Blair is pretty much fed up with adventures, as his troops are overstretched, too, and that is the underlying reason why he wants to shift his troops to Afghanistan again, much to the dismay of Rumsfeld. The madmen are in Washington, in Cheney's and Rumsfeld's offices and the AEI and JINSA. The Brits are remarkably sober about Al Quaeda.

Only half-idiots still buy Bush's line that the U.S. fights terrorists in Iraq, to not have to fight them in San Diego!

 

Blair couldn't actually assist in an invasion of Syria or Iran in the same fashion he did with Iraq anyway; It would politically wreck him and force his resignation if he tried it. Both him and Bush are certainly aware of this.

 

I'm not saying Syria and Iran are now going to happen; I'm just saying the likelihood has increased incrementally. Certainly people won't be quite as bothered by a harder line being taken on Iran re: nuclear weapons. And these things kind of build up. Before Syria would happen, likely you'd see a number of border skirmishes. And before Iran, likely someone would try to take out its nuclear facilities from the air.

People rally around their leaders when things like this happen, and mistakes and poor judgment like Iraqi WMD are more easily forgiven.

And if another terrorist attack happened on US soil, I could guarantee that the US armed forces would more than make up it's recruiting quota.

 

I think you're still actually radically over-estimating the effect this will have on foreign policy. It's not going to have annything near the effect 9/11 had, or even Madrid; it's just going to be business as usual for Blair, and the British public in general, come to that.

Oh, and believe me, Iraqi WMD's and the mess Blair made over Iraq has not been forgotten here, Not by a long shot. It's been a constant running sore for him, and he's never going to recover politically from that one. At least, perhaps not until the history books are written.

 

I do think the likelyhood has in fact decreased. These war's ain't gonna happen. Syria, if anything, will look like yet another color coded revolution.

And Iraq wil be left in the cold and the demonisations from the neo-cons will continue. IMO the neo-cons are still caught in their threat perception of the early days of the Khomeini regime, when the U.S. embassy was under siege. They just can't forget that. It's a simple bias.

Their greatest fear anyway, is that they can actually deal and talk with Iran's new man Ahmadinejad. Horrors!

If that would happen, they'd have to come up with a real policy, that would much more than the current 'evil begone' pseudo-policy.

The ironic part is that the neo-cons prefer to confront Iran, wich has legitimate security concerns, rather than allying themselves with them. To Al Quaeda Shias are heretics, and as popular enemies as the U.S.
Atm Iran actually cooperates with the U.S. against Sunni Islamists in Afghanistan. The U.S. and Iran have common enemies. They should be allies.

 

All the US needs is another decent-sized terrorist attack, and it will start throwing it's weight around again. A draft might not be unthinkable then. And remember: no one (except US soldiers and their families) has been asked to make any sacrifices whatsoever for either Iraq or Afghanistan. There's plenty of reserve capability here.

But I'm really talking about more subtle things, in terms of diplomacy. I would imagine that this would make the UK even less likely to overlook evidence of state sponsored terror.

Yeah, the whole Ahmadinejad thing, when everyone wanted to believe he was one of the embassy hostage takers.

But I'm surprised to hear you say the US/UK should ally itself with Iran; wouldn't this be just another case of the US/UK (cynically) allying itself (and thus supporting) an oppressive regime for the sake of national interest? Like how you would criticize the west for dealing with Uzbekistan, Saudi, etc?

 

['] ['] for those who died

 

What a nightmare. I used to work in an office building just across the road from Liverpool Street station. Most of my work colleagues would have come through that station every morning and many were probably on that train. Pretty hard to check if they are OK or not from this side of the world.

Could easily have been me...... scary.

 

It'll be the bloody IRA again :@.

 

10 posts before this attack was implicitly blamed on Bush. I am not sure if I should be surprised that it took that long, or ashamed that people are so politically motivated that they don't even wait to see who is responsible before they take advantage of the situation to lay the blame at the feet of a man who has absolutely no control over the attacked nation's foreign policy.

Oh well, typical leftist mindset, blame the most convenient and politically expedient party at every opportunity.

My condolences to those injured and the families of those killed in London. For the rest of us, get used to it. Until we decide that we have had enough of this, and are prepared to make heavy sacrifices, this is going to be a somewhat regular occurrence. None of the choices that would result in an effective end of terrorism are attractive, and no matter what course is taken in dealing with terrorism, a large number of people will be dissatisfied.

 

I'd hate to be a innocent muslim in London right now. They could be in a for a bit of bother from people who don't think before they react.

 

No, it's not.

 

Bion,
why not Iran, and why cynical? Iran, after all had elections with some four or so candidates, that have actually been democratic in procedere - that's quite a feat. Iran is a 60 million people with an amazing potential.

In sharp contrast the choice in the US usually is restricted to two and the democratic element has been disputed in the last two elections. Wether a geriatric council of mullahs choses candiates, or if two candidates boosted by big money get chosen, where's the big deal?

Darkwolf,

He has a point. Blaming Bush for contributing, with the invasion of Iraq, to the unprecedented recruitment spree for Al Quaeda has a point.

The increasing tempo in terrorist attacks after Bush started the Iraq war is no accident. The recent attack is just a consequence of Bush's serviecs as Al Quaeda's recruiting sergeant - the violent release of pent up energy in the people he helped to mobilise.

 

Man. Can we at least try and spend five minutes to spare a thought for the people directly involved and the millions of people indirectly impacted by the chaos in the city? Do we really have to launch into a political debate straight away?

Honestly, I’d hate to be with some of you people in a crisis. You’d probably just stand around debating which politician was to blame rather than helping deal with the emergency.

 

Geez, HB, must you ALWAYS be the voice of reason and sanity around here?

 

The first thing that comes to my mind, other than the Olympics, is that this is the fourth anniversary of the race-riot in Bradford. I doubt it's related at all, but it's another thing to think about. And I truly hope that whoever caused these actions suffers in Hell when they die. These things are why our world can't stop world hunger, because people elsewhere are ruining life for the rest of us.

 

Yes, well, it was also Thursday.

To those UKers here on SP - I send you many sympathies for your anguish and a rock-steady shoulder to cry on if needed.

 

Folks, there will be plenty of time for blame, recrimination and politics later. Right now, the priorities should be to salvage what can be salvaged, bury the dead and grieve or hold those who have suffered close in our thoughts. The English are doing that, rather than dissolving into arguments or chaos - I can safely say that England is and will remain in Australia's thoughts for some time after these events.

I stand amazed at the calmness, dignity and strength of the English at the moment. Instead of resorting to hysteria and a search for a scapegoat, everything has focused on the practical need to save those who can be saved, restoring order and getting people home.

I have a friend who is living in London at the moment (she's okay) who was on one of the destroyed trains until two stops before the explosion. Had she missed that one, she would have been at Kings Cross for that explosion. She said she spent most of the day in tears, astonished at the ability of Londoners and the emergency services to carry on.

What concerns me now is how event this will be used in domestic and international politics. Fox News is already beating the drums of war with allusions to the US and Britain being like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid - that "they come out shooting" when the chips are down.

While I would never suggest that those responsible are any more than murdering thugs who should be hunted down and tried, I do not trust the conservative governments and media of Australia or the US not to attempt to capitalise on fear and shock in the wake of this tragedy.

Blame and accusation can wait. For now, our thoughts and prayers are with the people of Britain.

 

This is especially relevant given that Auckland is currently chockablock full of English people following the Lions tour. This is the busiest I have ever seen Auckland as there are red shirts everywhere. It's amazing. Must be tough for them to be here and enjoy their holiday with all this happening back home.