Popular Iraqi support for the US invasion.

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Today I casually asked a student of mine who is a Turkomani from the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk if there was any news from "back home". He said not really. I asked what he meant and he replied that his uncle is about to go and join the war.

I cautiously asked, "you mean to fight against the government (Saddam)?" He screwed up his face and almost spat out the answer. "Of course not, against America."

I think that the US military is going to win the war, but in the long term they won't ever win the hearts of Iraqs many different ethnic and religious groups.

Since Blair has admitted the low way that the allied coalition betrayed the uprising in the first Gulf War it will be hard to convince them that it won't happen again.

Interviewing an Iraqi from Basra local current affairs asked him if his family in Basra trust the US this time. He denied it and when asked it he himself does, again he denied it. Iraqis simply don't trust the US.

The leader of Basra's Shia minority who is exiled in Tehran has urged the local Shia people of Basra to resist the US invasion of their land.

Good luck, US military, you are going to need a lot of it.

 

This is exactly why the war isn't going as planned. They expected the Iraqis to jump for joy when they got into Baghdad, not so. This is the Iraqis way of life, so what makes the US think they a) want it changed, b) the Iraqis are going to HELP them do it.

 

The shiites in south iraq not too long ago seriously burned their fingers trusting the US. They will be very careful to trust them again. And generally most people have emotional problems with accepting people bombing them as liberators and friends.
When the kurds in north iraq see that the US is just willing to integrate them into iraq they may stop supporting them as the only thing they ever wanted was the independence.

The interests of the US and their local allies do not always meet. When the locals see their interests neglected they might very quickly react and choose a path of their own.

 

Everything said here is absolutely true. yet I have one piece of history that I want to mention. In the 1940s, America went to war with a powerful enemy. Their mindset was alien to ours, their hatred of all things American unrelenting. They were the Japanese. The US dropped the biggest bomb ever used in warfare on them (actually, 2 of the biggest bombs).

They ended up as allies. I'm not saying that will happen here, as the Islamics may never accept America, but I float this as a possibility -- nothing more.

 

Just consider the amount of damage and suffering needed to make the japanese - as well as the germans - allies and friends to sober up.

The japanese and german defeats were complete, the death toll on civilians massive. No one can seriously want that. Bombing peoples into friendship is a questionable concept IMO.

 

Ragusa, my point is that even the worst of enemies can end up as allies after a war. Even the ones with mindsets that seem to be from different dimensions. I certainly was not suggesting we kill a bunch of civilians! I don't think that the # of civilian casualties made Germany and Japan more willing to be allies, anyway.

I don't think it's determined that the US and the Arab world will be enemies -- or friends.
I'm just pointing out possibilities and citing history to show that in at least one case, friendship after war happened.

 

Japan and Germany are not allies because they want to be, they're allies because they're smart. With the US as a world power, Japan would be stupid not to support the US machines. Think of all the countries that don't support the US, and I'll bet there's not a sensible leader among them.

France and Germany are being 'boycotted' by the american public because they do not agree to GW2003. I think that's rediculous. Just because they don't support it, they're economy has to suffer. Talk about brainwashing.

 

The Japanese and German are not the Iraqi.

Japanese and German is a nation with one nationality/race. After World War 2, their economy suffers, their constructions suffer, their everything suffer. Instead of fighting for power among themselves, they can unite together and rebuild their country. They, afterall, have pride on their country. During their 'reconstruction' they received the aid of America, in terms of money, technology and military. Especially Japan who is so weak and under the threat of Communist China, North Korea and Soviet. They are grateful and cunning, thus willing to be an ally of America for the time being.

Now, look at Iraq. Iraq is not a united whole country prior to Saddam Hussien and "I-I" war (iraq-iran war). Just like any other Arabic countries, Iraq is tribal, tribes hated each other and constantly compete for power of dominating each other. When Saddam came, with the military aid of U.S. and U.K., he successfully gain control of all Iraq, forcefully united the whole country and emerged victorious in the Iraq and Iran war.

The question here is, how can America, the outsider, totally unroot Saddam's power and unite all the Muslim tribes under America's flag?

[ March 28, 2003, 04:59: Message edited by: teekc ]