Disorder in Ukraine

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Well the presidental election is over and the president is accused of cheating in the election and the opposition refuses to accept his regime and are demanding the president to resign. hunderds of thousands of protesters are gathering in front of the presidental palace in Kiev. The situation reminds me strongly of the conflict in Georgia but I think this one has a greater chance of blowing up since there are also a great deal of protesters against the opposition on the streets. So basically Ukraine has now two presidents as the opposition candidate Viktor Jushtshenko and the official president Viktor Janukovic (distrubingly similar names) have both declared themselves presidents and swore the presidental oath.

Even Russia has a great deal to loose here as if Viktor Jushtshenko manages to win the conflict it will be a huge defeat to Putin and Russia as they are allready seeing the expansion of EU and NATO as great threats for their position in eastern europe.

The situation seems to be a huge mess right now and I don't see either candidates withdrawing from the battle anytime soon. I just sincerely hope that the military won't be used in clearing the situation. I hope that Justshenko wins since it seems that he is the democratic choise in Ukraine atleast according to the local media even it would probably chill the relations between Russia and Europe.

 

Most probably, Putin will manage to keep Yanukovych in power, although I'm fairly convinced the election has been cheated. On my way to the university this evening, I saw a manifestation before our Presidental Palace, demanding our president to file a note protesting against the official outcome of Ukraine's election.

Russia seems to be returning to old USSR methods of regional control. It looks somewhat similar to what they did in the later socialist countries in Eastern Europe in late fourties.

 

I just heard that they are loading tanks on trains, anyone else bets that a civil war is up ahead.

I hope not, the Ukrainans have suffered enough.

 

I've extremely worried about the situation, as my family happens to dwell in Ukraine, smack dab in the middle of the conflict. I just hope that Yushchenko wins and Ukraine can benefit from closer ties to Western Europe.

 

Well Yanukovych has assured that no military force will be used in resolving the conflict. I can only wonder though how it can end without military action if neither party is willing to give up. I doubt it will end in civil war though, that would just hurt everybody and neither Russia nor EU would want to see that happen.

 

As of yet and what I know things seems surprisingly calm and non-violent. Actually kinda hope inspiring to see something this infected in a young nation struggling for its democracy not immediately burst into violence.

From what I have heard the election cheating went on on both sides. Basically what we are seeing is a clash between the Western Ukraine which wants to move closer to continental Europe and Eastern Ukraine which wants to have closer ties to Russia. I saw this morning that Janukuvitj had started to bus miners into Kiev for some back up. Which one will back down first?

 

Last news, guys. Kutshma's elite BARS troops have joined the opposition. Government forces are trying to blockade major cities, but so far they haven't been greatly successful. Some Russian troops are already in Kiev, disguising themselves in Ukrainian uniforms. The parliament is still with Yushchenko. The latter has asked the former Polish president Lech Walesa for help. He has agreed (just a simple "yes") and says he has his briefcase ready and can come any moment.

There are free possible scenarios:

1. Belarus variant A. Yanukovych holds, free press and other media are suppressed, opposition persecuted.

2. Yushchenko holds. Putin's big defeat.

3. The parliament annuls the election. According to election laws, neither Yanukovych nor Yushchenko would be elligible, and the opposition only has Yushchenko, so in the end this is Belarus variant B.

The EU is still silent and so is Putin. Bet they are going to say something when the situation becomes a bit more clear, though I'd rather the EU showed some interest already.

 

The opposition seems very determined, I truly hope that they can hold out and get Yushchenko into office. I fear the election of Yanukovych. Chev, what's your take on Lech Walesa's entry into the struggle?

 

I've been following this situation closely, and one thing that seems clear is that the election was rigged. The problem being that both sides seem to have done things against the law. And in such a situation, you really have no defense if you come out on the losing side. What are you going to do? Accuse the othe side of being a better cheater than you are? Anyway, I wish their names were more dissilimiar - I still can't get them straight, and always have to go back to the beginning of the news article whenever they mention a name to figure out if they're talking about the incumbent or the challenger.

 

According to CNN, Powell just stated that the US does NOT accept the results of Ukraine's presidential elections due to reportsd of fraud.

No details yet, but I'm sure there will be.

 

Yesterday, listening to the radio, I got really scared, that there might be a civil war. I've been in L'Viv once for 3 days and I think the people there are so messed up, they scared the **** out of me.

 

Hmm, maybe the U.S. will step in with peacekeeping troops... Once we officialy annex Iraq and Ukraine as U.S. Territories, the stage will be set for us to put the rest of Europe in its place. Then it won't matter if foreign investors pull out of U.S. markets, because we'll own the world. Weak dollar? Who cares! Trade imbalance? Pshaw! Europeans don't like us? That's okay, we don't like them either! Bow! Bow before our unbridled might! Mwah ha ha ha ha!!!!!

*Ahem*

Or, perhaps this can be resolved peacefully, maintaining the sovereignty of each nation, and respecting the value of all people regardless of their political persuasion.

Of course, this is politics, and politics is power, and power generally does not go gently into any night, good or bad. Rather, it rages against the dying of the light. Prediction: Machiavelli was right, and opportunism and power plays will win the day.

 

Here's a blog out of Kiev.

 

Scary. I have a friend who is one of those peaceful protestors. I hope he's okay...

 

He's going to leave for Ukraine soon. So far as I know, as a mediator. The current president (which is a shame that he is) is going there as well - and this one is definitely going to be a mediator, while Walesa could still come up with a surprise.

The election commission has declared Yanukovych the victor. NATO wants revision of results. European Parliament wants evidence of LACK OF fraud or won't accept the results. Officially, there's 49.46% for Yanukovych and 46.41% for Yushchenko. Yushchenko says he is ready to participate in revised second turn, if there is an honest election commission. Ukrainian opposition says it doesn't accept any negotiator other than Kutchma, so I don't know what Walesa or Kwasniewski are going to achieve, although it must be stressed that Walesa was invited by Yushchenko. In this half of the year, Holland is in the EU's lead and it's going to send someone to discuss election results with both sides of the conflict.

Edit:

Last news:

Kwasniewski says that a group of Polish experts representing the president, government and ministry of foreign affairs was sent to Ukraine at 4 pm today. Himself, he's been invited by both Kutchma and Yushchenko, but he will only come in person when there is "matter for serious discussion". However, he says his role is not to encourage people to fight but to help find a compromise between the ruling circles (Kutchma) and the opposition. If you ask me, this means he's going to work primarily on the betterment of his own image. Especially as he said he wants the mandate from the Ukrainians, EU, European Council, OBWE etc. It's no mistery he simply wants a warm EU or UN synecure after his term ends in a couple of months, so he's working hard on maintaining proper ties.

He, however, at least says he wants the votes re-calculated and protests judged by the Ukrainian Supreme Court.

[ November 24, 2004, 21:57: Message edited by: chevalier ]

 

Isn't it funny how one frauding goverment condones another for frauding? Guess Bush want's to patent his methods.

 

Sheesh, and I thought the Democrats in the U.S. were sore losers.

This reminds me of a conversation I had during the 2000 election. A friend of mine is Cuban and he said "Nothing to worry about, until you see tanks in the streets. Then you know you aren't in the United States anymore."

 

Hmm. Even the Democrats aren't complaining about fraud this time around. Prudence and fairness would suggest we not condemn the honesty of the entire system of vote-counting in the U.S., which by the way is not done merely by Bush loyalists. Precincts count their own votes, and turn them in to a non-partisan system run by representatives from both major parties. Exit polls conducted by nonpartisan groups and by the media (which is 90% Democrat at last count) confirm that Bush won fairly. Bush-bashing may be fun for you, but try to stick to attacking him for things he has actually done.