A little nightmare...

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a little fiction ... intended to induce discussion

March/ April 2003:
The US eventually attack Iraq. Since Turkey denies them the right to start a ground offensive from thei soil they eventually move their troops to Jordan and make them seize the north iraqi oil fields from there. This angers the local population in jordan; the following riots are supressed consequently.
However, after three weeks of fighting and surprisingly stiff iraqi resistance US take Baghdad and manage to kill Saddam in an airstrike. This war is over.
Over the following weeks they install a military regieme there, paving the way for an elected gvt.

July 2003:
The US begin to make pressure on Assad to counter the Hisbollah in syria controlled Lebanon, the syrian refusal to intervene there themselves makes the US do that instead - they march into lebanon to crush the Hisbollah - and succeed. The US war mashine seems unstoppable, nothing can resist their incredible firepower.

This action rises an arab cry for revenge. Iran, one of those in the axis of evil, seeing their shiite brothers slain in Lebanon protests angrily. The shiites in south iraq turn hostile. The US, now busy in lebanon, also have to quell an uprising in recently freed iraq.

September 2003:
In free Iraq the kurds have, against all US attempt to prevent exactly that, declared kurdistan as an independent country. That was too much for turkey to stand by and watch and they march into north iraq at full strength to crush the new threat.
After the defeat of the Hisbollah in lebanon resistance against the invaders forms, in form of another intifada. US soldiers face masses of youths throwing molotow coctails and stones, ambushing convois and the like. In south iraq the shiites start the same. The tensions between the US and Iran increase.

In Jordan protests increase. The king, who barely speaks arab, again chooses to quell the riots with his beduin troops. The troops however, don't manage to succeed this time and are overrun. The king flees his country into british exile. After a week of riots, mainly from the palestinian underprivileged majority against the ruling minority of jordans a charismatic mullah takes power.

After that the saudi king and his family are killed in a coup d'etat and a group of colonels of the saudi forces take power. They decide to change saudi arabia to a more religiously oriented country. The political prisoners in saudi arabia are freed.
In Egypt pro-US president Mubarak manages to escape a series of assassination attempts and he makes his army take bloody action against the muslim brotherhood and other islamic groups threatening his power. A couple of massive bombings against US installations cause massive damage and cost 1.500 lives.
Urban riots organised by ex-Taliban scholars topple the pakistani government. A religious ruler takes his place. The muslim world now has access to the bomb.

November 2003:
The US losses have increased and have now reached the magical border of 10.000. Disturbing pictures of US tanks in arab cities fighing off mobs of youths, killing some of them, come into america's homes. The shocked US public is starting to oppose the war and demand to bring the boys back home. After three weeks of massive world- and countrywide protests the US decide to withdraw their troops step by step.

They leave behind a messed up middle east.

December 2003:
To fill the vacuum left after the US withdrawal iran seizes the iraqi oil fields and the Shatt el Arab. Turkey occupies north iraq, and the northern oilfields. Iraq now is a landbound country - without oil. Troubled core iraq is ruled by an unstable formerly pro-west authoritary regime. Mubarak's time has come and he is shot in another coup d'etat and a pro-islamic government takes power. The first thing they do is to close the suez shipping way.
Seaborne transport costs explode as ships from asia now have to take the longer and more expensive way around africa or via the pacific and the panama canal*. Worldwide prices rise

Lebanon's groups again start to pounce upon each other and Beirut again is reduced to a pile of bitterly fought for rubble.

The OPEC regains importance and stops oil export. Egypt, syria, iraq, jordan and saudi arabia call out a holy war and their united armies once again attack israel, in concert with a well organised violent uprising in the occupied territories in gaza and the westbank and in south lebanon. Volunteers from all over the arab world join them. They are surprisingly successful.
Israel, despite its professional and technical superiority looses ground, eventually Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are threatened. In the darkest hour Sharon decides to use nuclear weapons against the attackers and uses tactical nukes, neutron bombs, against the attacking armored collumns of the arab countries. They stop, stunned, and decide to retaliate with chemical weapons. These, drifting away from their intended targets into the cities, kill thousands of israeli civilians. In response Israel fires nukes on the cities of Riad, Kairo, Amman, Damascus and Baghdad ... and the arabs, now with pakistani aid, retaliate in kind ...

Merry christmas

[ March 23, 2003, 19:51: Message edited by: Taluntain ]

 

This may be Armageddon. In revalations, it said two armies will battle, one good and one evil (however I can't tell who's who now), and Baghdad is around a mile away from the biblical battleground, and do not forget the plagues, which right now is the SARS virus.

 

I don't even think it will be an armageddon. But I am pretty convinced that things will become a dynamics of their own and develop much different than anticipated.

The US might well start something they will not like when it comes out.

[ March 23, 2003, 12:30: Message edited by: Ragusa ]

 

Big change the Kurds and Turks start fighting, the middle-east is far from stable..

and it was a big mistake invading Iraq, well heck sure the yanks wont have problems with the afterwards-crisis (for now).
They´ll just let UN clean the mess!

 

You have really painted up a worst case scenario Ragusa. Let us hope that nothing of it comes to pass...
But something is bound to go wrong, it always does.

 

Ragusa, I truly hope it's not a crystal ball I am seeing there...

If that DOES happen, it's hell on Earth.

(suckies, is it not?)

 

"they march into lebanon to crush the Hisbollah"

SWEEEEETT!!

Now, what should have written in there too.

2) They slap ankle chains on everyone, and drive them before their tanks, so all the other Muslims know what happens when you cross the US (United States of America). Several hundred are crushed under tank treads when a few stumbled.

3) The Cable News Network plays a 2 hour special during prime-time, which is a compilation of all their field reporters personal digital voice recorders. "The sounds of lamenting Muslim Women" is an instant hit, and shown to 10-year-olds during their sociology classes.

 

EJ, that is a lot of the top don't you think?

 

I envy your cheerful enthusiasm that there is for everything an appropiate military solution, or the properly sized bomb.
There is the risk the US stir up a hornets nest. The middle east countries aren't stable. That is something that has to be taken into account.

The quick war once promised seemingly won't happen - recently Bush Jr. has announced a long war instead. Everyone was kinda surprised by Iraq firing missiles, and more, even resisting US forces and delaying the US advance. Seemingly the US have been a little overconfident.

When they applicate the same overconfidence into their diplomacy (actually that happened: Turkey denied them the base for an attack from the north) as they apply during their military ops, congrats ...
The boys in Iraq will have to pay for the white house and pentagon hawk's mistakes. Not only them, maybe the whole region.

 

Well, that's really a pretty misleading post you just had there Ragusa.

First, I couldn't really decipher what Darkwolf was saying but whatever it was it wasn't that there is a military solution for everything.

Second, you state

The way that you use this makes it seem as if the promise came from the US powers that be. In actuality, they've been warning from the very beginning that it would be much harder than many (talking heads both in the US and overseas who aren't associated with the government)were claiming. The official sources said time and again that "sacrafices" i.e. human losses would certainly occur. So, your saying that the officials are now changing their tune isn't accurate in my opinion.

You also state "everyone" was surprised when Iraq fired missles and resisted. Who is 'everyone?' In the US there was thought that had made it onto t.v. that we might expect an Iraq attack on the US forces in Kuwait before the air camapaign began while the troops were bunched together. There is a great deal of concern of collapsing bridges and flooding to bunch troops together to hit them hard.

Again, that was EXTREMELY misleading at best on your part and intentionally so at worst.

Your little scenario, with a lot of modifications, is why I personally felt that a war at this time would be premature. I have to admit though that thusfar things have gone as well as could be expected -- even with the pow's that Iraq has reportedly executed.

Will this continue? I dunno. But I do believe you are misrepresenting things above.

 

America would help Israel, in my eyes. There are too many Jewish-Americans for them not to. Plus, America and Israel have been good allies for a long time.(don't know actual dates) If Arab people rally to the cause of destroying Israel, wouldn't Jewish people certainly do the same to defend it? And Israel would have to be in very deep **** before they fired nuclear weapons.

 

While I still support the war in Iraq, that was quite a good scenario you wrote there, Ragusa! I doubt it will go that way, but your thesis that things will not just magically fall into place for the Americans just because they have big bombs is a valid one.

 

Ragusa's scenario sounds like a flash animation Velcro found online a few weeks ago. In any case, its impact is due to just how very many grains of truth are in it. One of the impacts they don't mention is what could happen to the value of the dollar and the US economy in the face of the international ill will we're piling up.

 

I am currently reading a book called 'the bible code'. A dr. found a 3000 year old code in the bible that predicts things. It foresaw sept. 11, the assassination of Rabin and it says there'll be an 'atomic holaucaust in 2006'. It's pretty scary stuff. I recommend you read it, although I don't know if it'll do you more good than bad (could just make ya paranoid).

 

I think that if all that hapens, it will be armegedon(spelling?).

 

Ragusadamus, anyone?

(*wanders off*)

 

Ha! See? Someone else agrees that this is armageddon.

 

Nah, not really agreeing.... just pointing out the similarities and making a really cool post. THis one is ruining the effect, actually. But you DO have a point....

(*sighs*)