Sarah Palin... The Movie

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That's the one thing that I don't get about Pawlenty - why he is considered a moderate in the first place. On a sliding scale there isn't much moderate on any of his positions. He's not as extreme as someone like Santorum or Bachmann, but he is definitely the most conservative of the four you listed.

I've gone back and forth with this. Six months ago, I thougth for sure she'd run. Then when everyone else started declaring and she didn't, I thought she wouldn't run. (What I didn't know was she was busy working on her movie.) Now I'm back thinking she will again.

In the primaries, yes. And when I say her negatives are over 50%, that's of the population at large - there's no way over 50% of card-carrying republicans have a negative view of her. The Tea Potters are about 30% of all Republicans, and they support her fanataically, so she gets high-favorability marks from them. I was talking more about the general election, where her 50+% unfavorables will be a major problem.

As Joe Biden will tell you, passing health care reform was a "big f'ing deal!" I think Obama gets a bad rap for some of his accomplishments.

On some of the other things you mentioned, he did declare that he wants Gitma closed. Unfortunately, the funds needed to actually close the facility need to be appropriated by Congress - Gitmo cannot be closed by Presidential decree. That said, he hasn't really pushed for it much since his first few months in office.

In 2009, he reversed the Bush era ban on embryonic stell cell research.

One of the campaign promises he did keep was ending the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy in the military.

Oh, and then there was the finance reform law he passed reforming how credit card companies can raise interest rates, and having to fully disclose how much you'll spend if you only make the minimum payment (I forget what the law was called).

Even though the republicans have used it as a talking point for two years now, the stimulus bill was probably a necessary step from preventing us sinking deeper into the recession, although I admit that is somewhat speculative. (We cannot know exactly what would have happened if that didn't go through.)

I think he'll get high marks for his military actions. Most notably getting OBL, but he also was pretty hard core with the Somali pirates. He got us out of Iraq (as promised), doubled down in Afghanistan (again as promised), and we still got stuff going on in Libya.

But I'm getting way off topic here - the point is that Obama's list of accomplishments may not be everything he promised, but I think he's done more than many give him credit for. About the only thing that is really lacking from what he promised is there has been no meaningful immigration reform in his presidency.

 

This is right, of course - I should have said "perceived" moderate. I suppose his perception as a moderate stems from the fact that he comes from a very blue state and is relatively unknown. Hell, most people (myself included) thought Sarah Palin was a moderate until she opened her mouth.

 

Didn`t she say there were dinosaurs around 4000 years ago?

 

I'm a Herman Cain fan myself. I disagree with him on a few things (abortion and same sex marriage), but I consider those minor in my overall political beliefs. I think he would play a great foil to Obama in the presidential campaign.

 

That's a commendable attitude that you don't see enough of. Way too many people are one-issue voters, and the two things you mentioned - same sex marriage and abortion - are typically the things you see the most with one issue voters. My mother-in-law is just such a person when it comes to abortion.

I too prefer to look at the candidate as a whole, because the only person in the world that is going to agree with every single position you hold is yourself. So it makes sense to pick issues that are most important to you and focus on them. Like you, abortion and same sex marriage just aren't that important to me.

The problem with Herman Cain is that most people don't know who he is, which makes him a long-shot of getting a viable campaign going.

 

My favorite Republican is still Ron Paul, hands down. As far as I'm concerned the Republican Party is being held hostage by its pundits - Rush, Beck, etc. The Rs played with the devil to try and get what they wanted, but they lost their political souls in doing it. Now they can't even own their own thoughts. Look at what just happened to Newt.

 

I agree about Paul. I don't agree with all of his positions, but he's forthright and he refuses to pander. And seems to always have been. He's pretty hard not to like. His son is growing on me, too.

I can kind of see the appeal of Herman Cain, but I don't think he'll go very far. It seems that every election cycle there's one little-known "every-man / speaks truth to power / Washington outsider" –type candidate who's sincere and enthusiastic but it ultimately becomes clear he's not well prepared and he doesn't really know a whole lot about what he's talking about. That's Herman Cain, I think. But we'll see.

Maybe it's the Utah boy in me, but I also like Huntsman and all things being equal would consider voting for him. IF he remains an honest moderate. If he goes the Romney route of flip-flopping whenever it's expedient, it'll be a shame. I'd like to see a Mormon politician maintain some integrity. If he's Romney 2.0, I don't think we'll see another Mormon national candidate for a long while. Then again - I have a hunch that Huntsman realizes how strong Obama's reelection chances are, and this is a test run for him for 2016. Better he give a respectable showing now to introduce himself to the public, and step aside in time to let a total wingnut like Palin or Bachman flame out. Paves the way for a sane conservative in '16, a role he could certainly fill.

Barring some catastrophe in the next year Obama's got my vote for reelection. I don't see any of the Republican candidates in the current field being an improvement, as all would almost certainly cause more damage to the economy by doubling down on the bad policies that got us into the mess were in, and none of them seem willing to be honest about what got us there (to hear them tell it, it's all Obama's fault - even BEFORE he took office). Besides, I kind of think the Republicans have screwed themselves with seniors on the Medicare thing.

 

The thing is, I think Romney is the front-runner right now for the Republican nomination. All of the polling up to this point has been pretty consistent - the top three are, in various order depending on which poll you look at, Romney, Palin, and Huckabee. Huck has announced he's not running, meaning it looks like we have either him or Palin being the early favorites.

EDIT: Lookie here, just found an article on Mr. Cain, who is polling better than many expected he would. Although, as you'd expect the top two choices are Romney and Palin.

Link.

 

I don't dispute that, Aldeth. But he polls about about 15%. The top spot has only 15%. That's sad. He's barely the frontrunner.

My point is, had Romney been more consistent and less phony, he'd be polling a lot better. He has a lot going for him – a pretty successful governing record, extremely telegenic, he certainly LOOKS the part (which does matter - just ask Daniels), tons of money – but he's pandered so hard and so often that he's not taken seriously by many independents. He's far too eager to make bold claims he hopes will turn into zinging soundbytes and ends up looking foolish. And his stance on Obamacare/Romneycare just makes him look like a chump – he should be able to defend his own successful record, but instead disowns it because that's what the voters want him to do, not because he actually believes it was a bad policy. This doesn't even get into the 'mormon' factor that will prevent swaths of Evengelicals from voting for him. And he's the frontrunner. If I were a Republican, I'd be even less excited with my choices this time around than last time. The sad truth is the GOP just doesn't have any strong candidates anymore, and there don't appear to be any coming, if current trends are any indication.

But give Sarah's absurd movie a chance. I'd bet a shiny nickel she's the frontrunner by August.

 

I disagree. For most Republican primary voters, Romney's moderate gubernatorial resume is an albatross around his neck. It would still be possible to win, and if his record on health care was his sole impediment, he would merely have an uphill battle. It is, after all, his "turn." Here's the real problem. If he embraces his record, he aims for the cooler, more moderate heads within the Republican primary crowd. Moderates will be put off by Romney's "Let Them Fail" op-ed from the Times. That op-ed will destroy his prime-time chances, too, and this fact won't elude any true-blue conservatives looking to hold their nose for a candidate with sufficient national appeal to win a presidential election. His editorial will likely hurt him even with the people most inured to the message. Romney appears to recognize this, since he's running away from that op-ed as fast as he can and is now claiming -- get this -- that bailing out the auto industry was his idea first. Romney already boned his chances of running as an honest moderate two and a half years ago. At this point, he's just trying to stay alive.