NFL Final Four

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We're down to the Bears, Packers, Steelers, and Jets. As most know, I bleed Black and Gold, and not only did the Steelers beat their arch-rivals the Ravens this weekend, but they caught what I think amounts to a big break:

The Jets knocked off the Patriots. It just seems like some teams have the other teams number, and that's the case of recent history between the Patriots and Steelers - the Pats absolutely own my beloved team. I saw a stat earlier this year that the Steelers have won only two of the past ten meeting between these two teams. I know for sure that one of those two wins was the year Brady was hurt, so that really doesn't count.

That said, I think the Steelers do match up pretty well against the Jets - certainly no worse than they do against the Patriots at any rate - so I am fairly optimistic.

On the NFC side - Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind. They are 3-point road favorites in Chicago this weekend. (The Steelers are also 3-point favorites, but their playing at home, and so they are basically saying these teams are dead even on a neutral feild.)

Not that the Super Bowl ever hurts for viewership, but the ratings bonanza would be a Steelers-Packers matchup - two teams with national followings of fans. In fact, other than possibly Pittsburgh-Dallas, it's probably the best pairing of teams you can conceivably get for viewership. Chicago is a huge market, but they aren't as national a team as the Packers, and the Jets aren't even the most popular team from their own city - the Giants are more popular both nationally and in the New York area. In fact, I don't think I've ever met a Jet fan who does not have ties to the New York/New Jersey area of the country.

 

It's going to be cold in Chi-Town this weekend. Flurries, with Highs in the low-teens, wind-chill around 3 or lower. Rodgers has been awesome, but the colder it gets, the harder it is to be perfect and the more a team will be prone to turnovers. Both teams have experiuence in cold-weather obviously, but Chicago has the worst field in the NFl, another factor in their favor. That said, I hope the Packers knock the snot of them! I cannot stand the Chicago fans living here. They think the Bears and Cubs are the greatest franchises in their respective sports and that Cutler is great. You gotta be kidding me, he's barely an upgrade from Grossman. It's fricking ridiculous and really cracks me up. There are no good sports conversations to be had here, they are too blind.

 

What is the NFL "Final Four" -- I've never heard of that. It's not March is it?

 

It's not an official name or anything. I just thought that "AFC/NFC Conference Title Games and Super Bowl XLV" would have been a unnecessarily long title.

 

So sad the Patriots forgot everything they knew about football last Sunday. Embarrassing game to watch.

I dislike both the Jets and Steelers, so I am hoping for a Greenbay-Chicago Super Bowl

 

Well, I'll watch it for the commercials and to avoid homework, and root for the NFC team.

 

The current lines are Steelers -3.5 (home) and Packers -3 (away). While I don't know this for certain, this may well be the first time there has ever been a road favorite in a Conference Title game.

In the first couple of rounds of the playoffs, it is not only possible, but quite likely, that one of the road teams are favored, as it often occurs that the wild card teams have better records than some of the division winners. This year alone, the Ravens were favored on the road against the Chiefs, and the Saints were road favorites against the Seahawks. But by the time you get to the title game, this usually doesn't happen, especially when the road team is the #6 seed, and the home team is a #2 seed.

A current bet on the Bears straight up is paying out at +130. (This means that you win $130 on a $100 bet - that's $130 net - you get your $100 back as well.) Conversely, if you take the Packers and lay the three points, you need to bet $110 to win $100 net.

 

The Jets have a slight edge coming into the AFC Champioship game. I don't think the edge will result in major points but it is an edge. The edge is that the Jets HC was the DC for the Ravens who played the Steelers 2x a year. That gives the Jets a slight and I mean slight advantage for preparing for the AFC Championship game.

As for the Packers and Bears. The Bears have been lucky all year and the Packers, not so. The difference will not be determined by luck though but by skill of the players. I believe the Packers are an all around better team.

I'm not picking who will win as all of these teams match up pretty well against each other.

 

Yup - Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens a couple of years ago before taking on his current head coaching job. On the downside (and admittedly this is coming from a Steelers fan), the Ravens lost to the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game in Rex's last game as the Ravens defensive coordinator.

 

I'm not a big beleiver in Sanchez yet. I'm thinking we will see a big Pittsburgh win on Sunday. Pittsburgh will bring the house at Sanchez and Run Blitz all game. They will force Sanchez try to beat them. Ar eth Jets receivers compentent enough to make a hot read on a blitz? That is the key this weekend. If so, a quick slant can turn into Seven for the Jets, but I don't see them running all over Pittsburgh. The Jets will also have to get to Big Ben. They got to Brady, but the Pats just looked stale. Their O-line was atrocious. Pitt will be ready. Go Steelers. (Disclaimer - This opinion is in no way the result of the fact that I have a large sum on the Steelers... I'm not crossing my fingers right now either... I swear..)

In Chicago, looking for a big GB win, but I like the Bears in the colder weather and crappy field, it suits their style better.

 

Both favorites won, and covered the point spread. As for a SB, unless you happen to be a fan of either the Bears or Jets, you cannot ask for much better than Steelers-Packers. Two storied franchises. Should be a great game. I don't know what the line of the game is, but my guess is the Steelers will come in as the early favorites - not by a large margin, I'm guessing 3ish +/- 0.5.

Unlike the prior two Steelers appearances in the SB, I'm not nearly as confident this time around. That speaks more for the quality of their opposition than the quality of this Steelers team.

I will point this little nugget out - the Steelers are money in the playoffs if they don't have to play the Patriots. All three of the SB trips this decade involved avoiding the Patriots on the way there.

 

Thank you Steeler-Nation! I will put that nice lttle stipend I just made away, possibly for D3 or DA2.

---------- Added 1 hours, 23 minutes and 5 seconds later... ----------

You're Jay Cutler. Your team is in the NFC championship game, you're the QB, the leader and you play now matter how hurt you are. That is what most NFL QBs would do. Be the leader, tough it out and try to give your team a chance at going to the Super Bowl. That is what you play for, the reason you tough it out all season. A shot at glory and a ring. This is what it is all about. And you totally wuss out. Take the path of the coward. Screw the team, you come first.

Jay Cutler, a true champion...

 

If the MRI comes back with only minor damage, it's going to be a tough pill for the people of Chicago to swallow. As Derrick Brooks tweated during the game, "there ain't no medicine for having no guts and no heart."

 

A local sports personality, before the game, tried to insinuate that 4 opf the top 6 QBs in the league were playing this wekend. I had to laugh out loud, standing a few feet away from this guy. Only Rodgers is top six out of that group. Maybe Ben. Maybe. But Cutler and Sanchez? Not.

 

Cutler has a sprained MCL. So, hurt enough?

If I were to rate the top six, I'd say Brady, Manning, Brees definitely. I'm OK with including Ben and Rodgers. As a sixth, I'll go with Philip Rivers. Matt Ryan and Tony Romo (not this year because he was hurt, but overall), get honorable mention, although I cannot move Ryan into the top 6 with zero career playoff wins, and Romo with just one.

EDIT: Packers are favored by 2.5. I'm not sure that makes a lot sense. Don't totally trust the Packers, and if Rodgers is off a little (say, like this past week) the Packers will be in trouble.

 

He was barely limping on the field. He should of played, it was the NFC championship game. If ever there is a time to tough it out, that was the time.

Brady, Peyton, Brees and Rodgers are defintely the top 4. Romo is next, he would be a better lock if they actually got to a championship game thogh. Ryan is pretty excellent as well. After that, you gotta go with SB wins. Ben is next and then Eli I guess.

 

What about Vick? He was insane this year! He would definitely be in my top 6 for this year.