Who will win? Obama or McCain?

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Aldeth: Another issue is the populace the polls are taken from. I've never had a good feeling about the sample protocol of most polls. All are flawed.

 

I tend to agree, especially in the case of Zogby, who does not sample cell-phone users. Given the increasing number of people these days who forgo a landline completely - I'm one of them - this obviously skews their results heavily to the elderly.

 

I think it's too close to call really. I somehow have a feeling in my stomach that Mccain will be bagging this home. I also think that some people are way too confident that Obama will win. Obama is way too charismatic for his own good in my opinion.

 

I think Obama will win, the desire for change from the Bush years and a massive advantage in spending power should see him through. Kinda ambivalent between the two myself but I expect Obama to win. Not the suggested landslide though.

 

McCain will win, although I want Obama to.

Then again, I think the entire U.S. voting system (and political system) is a piece of crap. I don't think we should have political parties at all. That is beside the point though.

McCain will win because of his fear-and-smear campaign.

 

I believe Obama will win. He will win for the following reasons.

1. McCain is 100% correct and that Obama is treated like a rock star/celebrity by the press. The press will do everything they can to ensure he wins. Some of McCain's (and others) videos about this are hysterical.
2. Many conservatives do not like McCain and if they stay home it will kill him.
3. Obama going back on his word and not accepting public funding and the limits that go with that funding.

As I like to cover all my bets, here are the reasons why Obama may lose (note: not McCain winning)

1. People realize that he has accomplished as much as my letter-carrier. In otherwords "nothing".
2. The pollsters are being lied to as people are afraid of being labelled a "racist" if they don't vote for the "black" guy.

 

It is the pendulum effect. both will rise and fall in the polls. the trick is to peak at the right moment.

Do not take news from abroad to lightly.

 

You do realize the exact opposite can also be argued, and supported with ample video evidence, quite convincingly – right?

I agree with this to an extent, but I don't know if enough will stay home to throw the election. McCain is running pretty far to the right at the moment in an attempt to reassure just such voters, and I think most of these same voters will hold their nose if they see it as a much-preferred alternative to the terrorist-loving no flag-pin wearing secret-muslim socialist elist arugula-muncher.

While I suppose this is true, you can't really hold that one against him. No politician on Earth would forgo private funds if they were raking in the kind of cash that Obama has. And especially when you consider that over 85% of Obama's money has come from individual donors - individual people giving $50, $100, $200 at a time - it IS, in a sense, public financing. Or at least, it's in keeping with the spirit of public financing (i.e., campaign money coming from the people rather than big money interests). Besides, I find it near impossible to believe that if your preferred conservative candidate had done the same and with such runaway success you would begrudge him too much for "breaking his word."

If you repeat this enough, Snook, and I'm sure someday it'll come true. I guess I can't rib you too much, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But I would remind you that Bush was no pillar of accomplishment either when he took office, and you were just ducky about him.

This is an interesting point that I hear from time to time. Is this your opinion, or have you read a media study on the subject that I must have missed? If the latter, I'd be interested to read it. Especially when you consider that nearly all such opinion polls don't really require much (if any) identification, so the fear of being thought of as racist is negated by the anonymous nature of a phone poll...or at least that's my thinking on it. Then again, I'm becoming more and more of the opinion that polls are pretty much useless with each passing year, so I suppose it's not important anyway.

 

1.) The press is a fickle lover. They have favored candidates in the past, only to splash their biggest faux pas across the morning and evening news for weeks. If this happens before the election (especially close to it), this could kill his support. I'm talking about a potential landslide for McCain if this happens.

2.) For all that conservatives don't like or trust McCain, they despise Obama and trust him to do exactly what they don't want. I think we'd much rather risk McCain and all that he entails than take the near certainty that Obama would bring.

3.) Funding is far from everything. It may make a real difference, but I think the public has already gotten a general idea of the kind of characters they are. Most of them don't seem to be strong on the candidate's specific positions or policies, but they've gotten a gut feeling and that's a powerful force for a lot of people.

DR:

This comes from California. They even have a name for the effect, after a black politician who was killing in all the polls, even exit polls, but ended up loosing the actual election by quite a bit. After asking around, a lot of people responded that the told polsters they were voting for the black guy so they'd look 'enlightened' and 'tollerant', but they actually voted for the white guy.

 

Oh that's right, the Bradley Effect. Good call, NOG. Whether it has actually been a factor for Obama in this election cycle is purely speculative at this point, as no one has made a significant effort to track and analyze its presence (at least not successfully so far as I've read - correct me if I'm wrong). So it is just conjecture on Snook's part. That said, I'm not denying emphatically that it's been a factor because I honestly don't know. I suppose it's a reasonable assumption. But I also tend to think it may be safe to suppose that the sheer number of African Americans turning out to vote for and support Obama may have offset much of that latent racism.

 

I think McCain will win because onf one important factor: The Christians.

The Evangelicals will bew out in full force to support the Replublican dandy, but the rank and file are not truly represented by either party line. Sure the Republicans hold up the moral stance that the Evangelicals like, which would also appeal to most Christians, they fall short on the things that make a difference to the individual, like helping those in need and the like. While Democrats are better with this side of the coin, their moral stance is questioned. I just think the majority will value the moral stance of the Republicans on big issues like Gay Marriage and Abortion over the otherwise worthy stance of the Democrats...

 

The arguments why Obama will win probably miss a point. Dems are, the mythical 'liberal media bias' notwithstanding, notoriously poor at PR. The R's, who often have a corporate background of some sort, know the value of marketing. They implement it consequently and to a much greater extent into their campaigns. If anyone is interested, two links on why I think so:

Does Emotion or Rational Interest Motivate Voters?
which is excellent, and also quite interesting is this one:
The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies
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I watched the tv 'discussion' of McCain and Obama with Rick Warren at Saddleback Church again last night. I found it disturbing. What struck me is that, while Obama talked with the host in a dialogue and had nuanced answers, McCain exclusively spoke to the audience and delivered sound bites and slogans.

The salient point here is not that McCain is dumber than Obama, even though I think he probably is. And it isn't about content either. It is the approach to the campaign. Obama comes along and tells people that he has answers, and he tries to persuade them. Well, even really good ideas don't sell themselves. In stark contrast, McCain's campaign is run like a branding and marketing campaign for a laundry detergent or toothpaste. What is worth fighting for? Freedom! Aha, great, McCain stands for Freedom. Obama? ... I think it is always a judgement call...

I accept as facts that marketing works reasonably well, and that many people are stubbornly resistant to persuasion, assuming that they can actually follow the argument. For those with a short attention span McCain is the more effective messenger. His sound bites are short, emotional and simple. Trained that way by his handlers (gone is the 'Maverick', he has been domesticated), McCain brings across his 'message' in 15 sec: What is worth fighting for? Freedom! Whose freedom? Everyone's? If so, America will be very busy if McCain is elected president. And don't get me started on McCain confronting evil, squarely ... There was no message or policy formula in anything that McCain said. But there was a lot of emotional appeal. He delivered emotional trigger words - sound bites that one can keep in mind easily. Her makes them stick through relentless repetition. Contrast that with following an argument a la Obama. That isn't done in 15 sec.

McCain is superior in addressing the unthinking, which are a majority. Before somebody suspects US bashing, that reality extends well beyond America. I think that the R approach is effective (if lamentable) and can make up for Obamas probable qualities over McCain by running a (negative) campaign strategy that primarily relies on effective marketing practices. And effective it is: It has worked twice for Bush Jr. It is entirely possible that McCain will win that way, if only by a small margin. Actually, if Obama doesn't get his act together and defends himself against the attacks from the McCain camp, and quickly, I fear McCain will win.

 

That would be odd because I think Obama represents Christian values much more than Mac does. It will be interesting to see if Christians vote against the interests of their religion by voting for Mac, or if they vote for Christian values by voting for Obama.

 

Isn't charity a Christian value? Isn't tax cuts for the poor, health care for the poor, and the energy problems (which hurt the poor the most as they have to spend money on gas and have to heat their homes in the winter) be considered Christian values?

 

Aldeth, that would be denying those poor souls the opportunity to learn from their mistakes. Isn't it obvious that if you're poor and can't provide for your family that God hates you? Getting back into good graces with God will help these souls throughout an eternity ... the long journey can be started with a small donation ....

People did not come to America to flee religious persecution. They came to America to settle into an area where their religion was the majority and they would be free to persecute other religions.

Chandos: How can any democrat be Christian? You cannot righteously smite evil in the name of God if you don't support a HUGE defense budget. It is clearly unchristian-like to avoid God's will in the Holy Smiting area.

 

Point made, but will Obama stand up for the rights of the Unborn and say that Abortion is Murder? Will Obama support the notion that Marriage is sacred and between a Man and a Woman? I'll believe that when I see it.

The truth is that no side accurately represents Christian values. In the mean time, Christians will look at the bigger issues, like abortion and gay marriage over the issues that AFI mentioned, and that priority will keep a Republican in the Whitehouse until this is resolved to their liking and the Democrats won't try to change that.

If Abortion was illegal and Marriage was defined strictly as between a Man and a Woman, you might see more of them support Democrats...

 

I hope Obama will win of course, but I'm not casting a vote just yet, not until we can judge the effect of the sudden entrance of Sarah Palin into this election. McCain has thrown a joker into the pot, hoping it will help him. It's certainly gotten a lot of attention, just about all of the attention, actually, and we'll have to see how it plays out. Perhaps Obama will wish he had chosen Hillary.

 

I don't want either of them to win.

However, McCain has the better looking women on his side.

 

Better looking than Michelle? Look again, my friend.