1. SPS Accounts:
    Do you find yourself coming back time after time? Do you appreciate the ongoing hard work to keep this community focused and successful in its mission? Please consider supporting us by upgrading to an SPS Account. Besides the warm and fuzzy feeling that comes from supporting a good cause, you'll also get a significant number of ever-expanding perks and benefits on the site and the forums. Click here to find out more.
    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
You are currently viewing Boards o' Magick as a guest, but you can register an account here. Registration is fast, easy and free. Once registered you will have access to search the forums, create and respond to threads, PM other members, upload screenshots and access many other features unavailable to guests.

BoM cultivates a friendly and welcoming atmosphere. We have been aiming for quality over quantity with our forums from their inception, and believe that this distinction is truly tangible and valued by our members. We'd love to have you join us today!

(If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. If you've forgotten your username or password, click here.)

POLL: Pirate map :)

Discussion in 'Whatnots' started by khaavern, Jul 22, 2006.

  1. khaavern Gems: 14/31
    Latest gem: Chrysoberyl


    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2004
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    0
    Okay, the question is the following: a kid goes to McDonalds and gets a happy meal. This comes with one of eight parts of a pirate map, which will lead to treasure :p . Assuming that each time he eats at McD, he gets one part of the map at random, how many happy meals does he have to get before he has a 50% chance of obtaining the whole map?

    (Any similarities with real persons or situations is purely incidental ;) )

    Poll Information
    This poll contains 1 question(s). 15 user(s) have voted.
    You may not view the results of this poll without voting.

    Poll Results: Pirate map :) (15 votes.)

    So, how many happy meals do you fancy eating :) (Choose 1)
    * 8 to 10 - 7% (1)
    * 11 to 16 - 0% (0)
    * 17 to 25 - 7% (1)
    * 26 to 35 - 20% (3)
    * 36 to 45 - 27% (4)
    * 46 to 55 - 7% (1)
    * 55 to 70 - 7% (1)
    * over 70 - 27% (4)
     
  2. kuemper Gems: 31/31
    Latest gem: Rogue Stone


    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2005
    Messages:
    8,926
    Likes Received:
    8
    You do realize the kid doesn't have to eat the meal to get the map piece. :p
     
  3. khaavern Gems: 14/31
    Latest gem: Chrysoberyl


    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2004
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    0
    What, you mean take a kid to McD and not feed him ?! that's not the way things work around here :)

    anyhow, I have no idea how many random pieces you need to make a whole map, but I guessed at about 40. Which seems quite a lot; I hope I don't have to find out :)
     
  4. Master of Nuhn

    Master of Nuhn Wear it like a crown Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2001
    Messages:
    3,815
    Media:
    21
    Likes Received:
    97
    Gender:
    Male
    I guessed 32. I used to be quite good at this, but now I am terrible and I am probably wrong. :bad: :nolike:
     
  5. kuemper Gems: 31/31
    Latest gem: Rogue Stone


    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2005
    Messages:
    8,926
    Likes Received:
    8
    Any kid who gets a Happy Meal at Mickey Ds get it for the toy, not the food! :grin:
     
  6. Gnarfflinger

    Gnarfflinger Wiseguy in Training

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2004
    Messages:
    5,423
    Likes Received:
    30
    With just 4 visits, the odds of half the map are about 40%.
     
  7. Arabwel

    Arabwel Screaming towards Apotheosis Veteran

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2001
    Messages:
    7,965
    Media:
    2
    Likes Received:
    16
    Gender:
    Female
    thwe problem is that the number of map pieces in total is infinite - or at least close to it. without knowing how many pieces there are in total, it is impossible to really say whow many you would need.

    I think.
     
  8. Kitrax

    Kitrax Pantaloons are supposed to go where!?!?

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2002
    Messages:
    7,899
    Media:
    74
    Likes Received:
    96
    Gender:
    Male
    Well...I am unfimailiar with this current promo from McD, is there some actuall prizes to be had of you make a full map or something? If there is, MCd's phillosiphy is to always make 32 million copies of 7 of the 8 peices, and then towards the end of the "game" add in a hand full of the 8th peice that would make a winner. The thinking behind this is that that thois few winning peices will end up to people that have no intrest in the game and will toss it in the trash, or someone will get it who only has a few of the peices required...and once they get them all, the game is over. :bad:

    So knowing McD, you'll probably get the same exact section of the map 5 times in a row. :nono: :rolling:
     
  9. Rotku

    Rotku I believe I can fly Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!)

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2003
    Messages:
    3,105
    Likes Received:
    35
    Think that will help, Ara. Unless I'm reading it wrong, 8 would be the number you are after ;)
     
  10. Arabwel

    Arabwel Screaming towards Apotheosis Veteran

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2001
    Messages:
    7,965
    Media:
    2
    Likes Received:
    16
    Gender:
    Female
    8 is the number of the different pieces - but what about the total nnumber? because there is more than one of each piece. if we don't know that there's,s ay, 100 of each piece being given out in a single restaurant, we canöt tell how many meals are needed to get all the pieces.
     
  11. Felinoid

    Felinoid Who did the what now? ★ SPS Account Holder

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    7,470
    Likes Received:
    6
    Gender:
    Male
    In other words, we don't know the pot we're picking from. Something Kit well-represented with the way McD's rigs most of their contests. No sane business would put so many winning combinations out there when there's a pricey prize (like some of the better stuff in their occasional Monopoly things). OTOH, if there's no prize, they might just leave it with even distribution.
     
  12. Rotku

    Rotku I believe I can fly Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!)

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2003
    Messages:
    3,105
    Likes Received:
    35
    Ah, I understand you now, Ara. But still, I don't think you need that to work out how long it will take to have a 50% chance of getting all the peices.
     
  13. Felinoid

    Felinoid Who did the what now? ★ SPS Account Holder

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    7,470
    Likes Received:
    6
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes, you do. You need to know the distribution, the percentage chance of getting a particular piece. Now I'm betting that khaavern and everybody else is assuming that it's an even chance no matter how many of each you pick (which is highly doubtful in reality but plausible in a theoretical setting), but even that would be something that we need to know.
     
  14. Nakia

    Nakia The night is mine Distinguished Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) BoM XenForo Migration Contributor [2015] (for helping support the migration to new forum software!)

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2003
    Messages:
    5,575
    Media:
    102
    Likes Received:
    135
    Gender:
    Female
    In this poll we are only looking for 50% of the map not the whole thing.

    I picked in the 30 meal range but I think it would be possible to get 50% of the map sooner then that.

    The whole map? Kitrax has it nailed. That last piece is going to be hard to come by.
     
  15. Felinoid

    Felinoid Who did the what now? ★ SPS Account Holder

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2005
    Messages:
    7,470
    Likes Received:
    6
    Gender:
    Male
    Nope.
     
  16. Sydax Gems: 19/31
    Latest gem: Aquamarine


    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2003
    Messages:
    1,166
    Likes Received:
    0
    Something like this happened here some time ago: Burger King put up a challenge; you had to collect the letters of the words Playstation, so when you completed that, you got a PSP; an "unhappy" employee said to delighted kids that they would never get the PSP at that store, so one kid told this to his father who went to ask the employee why the heck he said that, the employee then told to the father: we get 500 boxes with letters from the word Playstation but the Y, so there's no way you can complete the word, at least here; and from what I've heard, there's no Y in any of the Barcelona's stores.
    The father sued Burger King, but got nothing; BK said that the employee had no way to know the letters of the box... doh, the letter was written in the inside base of th box, where every employee could see the letters...

    And this isn't new, I remember trying to get the final little picture to complete the collection just to get the football prize.
     
  17. Master of Nuhn

    Master of Nuhn Wear it like a crown Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2001
    Messages:
    3,815
    Media:
    21
    Likes Received:
    97
    Gender:
    Male
    Like Fel said: 50% chance of obtaining the whole map.
    With 7 pieces you are sure you don't have the whole map, so there's a 0% chance that you have the whole map.
    There's a 12.5% chance that you get Piece A, or piece B, or any of the 8 pieces. And the chance that you get an other map piece does not increase when you got an other, because I did't hear any numbers there are of each mappiece. (You still understand me? I'm not that good in explaining such things in a foreign language)
    To get a 50% chance you get 1 certain map piece you need 4 meals, that times 8 is 32.
    But I probably did something wrong...
     
  18. khaavern Gems: 14/31
    Latest gem: Chrysoberyl


    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2004
    Messages:
    675
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ara (and Fel): for simplicity, let us assume that there is an equal chance of getting any of the different eight pieces with any meal. You are right that that's probably not exactly true (what you get depends on how many pieces of each type the restaurant has at the moment), but then it would be impossible to solve the riddle.

    (also , I assume that McD is not cheating, and they put out an equal number of every piece)

    Nakia: I want the whole map :) 50% refers to my chances of having the whole map once I gathered a certain number of pieces (let's say, 20 or 30).

    Oh, and I think my original estimate of 40 was on the large side; now I think it should be something like 20-25; but I did not figure out yet how to find the exact solution ...
     
  19. Eldular Gems: 10/31
    Latest gem: Zircon


    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2005
    Messages:
    355
    Likes Received:
    1
    Holy Brehmen, all of this out of a simple poll? O_o
     
  20. Harbourboy

    Harbourboy Take thy form from off my door! Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

    Joined:
    May 29, 2003
    Messages:
    13,332
    Likes Received:
    90
    I agree with Kitrax. If this is anything like their "Dick Tracy" promotion, there will be one piece that is impossible to get. Man, I ate more Big Macs during that promotion than in the rest of my life put together, but I never heard of anyone catching sight of the elusive "Pruneface" card.
     
Sorcerer's Place is an independent project run entirely by fans and for fans. Maintaining Sorcerer's Place and a stable environment for all our hosted sites requires a substantial amount of time and money on a regular basis, so please consider supporting us to keep the site up & running smoothly. Thank you!