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A new look on global warming

Discussion in 'Alley of Dangerous Angles' started by NOG (No Other Gods), Mar 6, 2008.

  1. NOG (No Other Gods)

    NOG (No Other Gods) Going to church doesn't make you a Christian

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    Citing primarily from here: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,334682,00.html

    Yes, this is a Fox News Opinion piece, but this guy has done his research. I urge you all to read the links in his article.

    To summarize:
    1.) Climate change from 1998 to 2008 has largely eliminated the 1 degree C warming that occurred from 1898 to 1998 and more than countered the warming from 1988 to 1998. We now seem to be in a global cooling, or at least a plateau, phase.

    2.)A conference in New York on Monday and Tuesday this week brought 100 scientists together to discuss "significant new peer reviewed research" that has cast even more doubt on "dangerous human-caused global warming". Though this was written before that and I don't have any quotes from it.

    3.)In December, a letter was written to the UN signed by another 400 scientists that question manmade global warming. A link is provided to it.

    4.)The recent observations of things like glacial retreats, sea-level rise, migration of temperature-sensative species, and the 0.1 to 0.2 degree Celsius per decade temperature changes are all well within established norms for the past 10,000 years.

    The breakdown of the arguement works like this:

    1.)Global temperatures don't seem to be rising anymore, but rather falling.

    2.)Even if they were rising, only about .3% of the Greenhouse Effect is caused by human contributions, and only about .11% of that is from the much demonized man-made CO2 contributions.

    3.)Even if we were causing it, it looks like its more good than bad. Both higher temperatures and higher concentrations of CO2 would produce greater amounts of habitable and farmable land, significantly greater. And how many people would actually die from a 7-inch to 2-foot sea level rise over 100 years? I'm sure the European dikes could be raised that much and more in that time.

    For those of you that don't want to hunt for the link to the letter to the UN, here it is:
    http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.SenateReport#report

    Please note that several of the signators were on the UN IPCC Summary for Policymakers, which only had 52 and apparenly "more closely resembling a political party’s convention platform battle, not a scientific process".

    Sorry, Drew, but that much-vaunted "X years without a single peer-reviewed paper disagreeing with man-made global warming" is going to have to go.
     
  2. T2Bruno

    T2Bruno The only source of knowledge is experience Distinguished Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    I've been enjoying John Coleman's comments as well.
     
  3. Chandos the Red

    Chandos the Red This Wheel's on Fire

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    Yes, they found a guy from FOX to disagree with most eveyone!

    Isn't that just a brilliant statement? People can't buy more fuel-efficient, less polluting, more affordable cars, because they are "Unsafe At Any Speed." That statement stands on the merits of its own stupidity. Wow, thanks for bring AM talk radio to SP, NOG. :rolleyes:
     
  4. Rotku

    Rotku I believe I can fly Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!)

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    Hey, everyone is allowed their heroic last stand. I bet even The Committee for the Flat World had a heroic last stand before they disbanned ;)
     
  5. T2Bruno

    T2Bruno The only source of knowledge is experience Distinguished Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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  6. Taluntain

    Taluntain Resident Alpha and Omega Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Resourceful Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) BoM XenForo Migration Contributor [2015] (for helping support the migration to new forum software!)

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    Oh, I'm sure that they're still around, just in a diminished capacity. True stupidity never dies, it just sheds the unbelievers until only the worthy few remain. You'll find people who believe in just about anything if you look hard enough.

    But hey, let's wait until the polar caps melt completely. Pre-emptively not striking FTW!

    "Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create an illusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental whacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the “research” to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus. --John Coleman"

    Is this guy trying to sound like a joke, or is it just his meds or something he's smoking? Last I checked, no one in their right mind took anyone spouting global conspiracy theories seriously...

    But then again, the emphasis is on in their right mind...

    Not that it's not obvious from a mile away who's paying icecap.us's staff, but just for the sake of sharing what a little bit of digging reveals...

    First a bit about ICECAP (see link for more): "The Web site domain name for ICECAP was registered on October 20, 2006 by Joseph D'Aleo, who is listed among the personnel of the Science and Public Policy Institute, another organization that promotes the views of global warming skeptics that is backed by the Frontiers of Freedom."

    And a bit about Frontiers of Freedom: "Frontiers of Freedom receives money of tobacco and oil companies, including Philip Morris Cos, ExxonMobil and RJ Reynolds Tobacco. According to the New York Times: "Frontiers of Freedom, which has about a $700,000 annual budget, received $230,000 from Exxon in 2002, up from $40,000 in 2001, according to Exxon documents”."

    It'd be interesting to find an anti-global warming site with no connections to the oil companies for once, wouldn't it?
     
  7. AMaster Gems: 26/31
    Latest gem: Diamond


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    Cooling as a result of warming isn't exactly a surprise. That's been predicted. For a while.

    Hence 'climate change', not 'global warming'.
     
  8. T2Bruno

    T2Bruno The only source of knowledge is experience Distinguished Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Tal, SourceWatch specifically states the Science and Public Policy Institute is funded by Frontiers of Freedom, not ICECAP. You're being a bit misleading.

    John Coleman's articles are found on the KUSI site (TV station in San Diego).

    Coleman's Corner

    They are an interesting read -- especially given his background.
     
  9. Taluntain

    Taluntain Resident Alpha and Omega Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Resourceful Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) BoM XenForo Migration Contributor [2015] (for helping support the migration to new forum software!)

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    T2Bruno, "The Web site domain name for ICECAP was registered on October 20, 2006 by Joseph D'Aleo, who is listed among the personnel of the Science and Public Policy Institute."

    I think you can connect the dots.

    By the way, some recent information on the subject:

    I suggest reading the rest of the article too.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2008
  10. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Eh? The only thing like that I recall is if enough cold freshwater from melting ice enters the oceans and shuts down the gulf stream it could cause a global cooling. Nothing like that has happened.

    On the other hand, one year of cooling and increasing ice caps does not a trend make... we will have to see what the future brings. It is noteworthy that solar activity has been down and we now have this cooling over the past year. As I've mentioned before, this is sure getting interesting.
     
  11. NOG (No Other Gods)

    NOG (No Other Gods) Going to church doesn't make you a Christian

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    Read the links. There's a lot more than one year of it here. One of them has a whole chart of the global temperature ups and downs for the past few decades, and while a warming trend can be noticed from 1988 to 1998, it pretty much caps there. After that, it seems to kind of plateau, going up and down roughly evenly.

    If the Arctic loosing ice is evidence of global warming, what is the Antarctic gaining ice evidence of?

    By the way, I've heard a lot of bashing of Coleman, but I haven't heard anything talking about the science he discussed. Now I generally don't like opinion pieces any more than the rest of you, but, as Drew said in another thread, the truth is the truth, regardless of who's spouting it.

    Does anyone want to comment on the statement that man-made global warming currently amounts to about .3% of the Greenhouse Effect? How about the fact that CO2 is the least effective greenhouse gas? How about the actual effects of global warming?

    Sorry, Chandos, but I was actually talking about the hundreds of scientists, not a single Fox News reporter.
     
  12. T2Bruno

    T2Bruno The only source of knowledge is experience Distinguished Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    Wait... ICECAP also has four FOX meterologists as members. There is clearly a conspiracy here. I think Tal may be on to something. :rolleyes:
     
  13. Proteus_za

    Proteus_za

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  14. The Great Snook Gems: 31/31
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    Has any other major news source commented on this yet or is it strictly being blogged about and on Fox?
     
  15. AMaster Gems: 26/31
    Latest gem: Diamond


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    Oops, you're right. I was thinking of local (or regional, or whatever) temperature decreases occurring at the same time as a global warming trend.
     
  16. NOG (No Other Gods)

    NOG (No Other Gods) Going to church doesn't make you a Christian

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    I saw an opinion piece on CNN about it, but it boiled down to "I don't like these guys and they must be idiots to doubt global warming,regardless of their credentials." The article on Fox also links to one on Newsweek (I think), but that looked like another opinion piece. Face it, global warming critics don't get news time, regardless of their their credentials, training, news, etc.

    Now, I would really like to see this topic discuss the issues here:

    1.) Is there a geologically significant global warming trend?

    2.) If so, how much does human activity contribute to it?

    3.) How dangerous is global warming?

    For my part, I see it as thus:

    1.) Yes, there is a geologically significant global warming trend. It has been going on since roughtly 1400, the bottom of the Little Ice Age. Before the mid 1300's, the average planetary temperature (or at least, across Europe, Asia, and Africa) were higher than they are today. Ever since the bottom of teh Little Ice Age, the planet has been 'recovering'.

    2.) Not very much. As previously stated, 95% of the greenhouse effect comes from water vapour, to which mankind makes no significant contribution. Of the various other gasses, it looks like mankind contributes only about .3%, which alots us a whopping .18 degrees F of the 60 degrees F that the greenhouse effect produces. Of that, our CO2 contributions produce about .066 degrees F (.11%). Considering the predictions the climatoligists are constantly producing of 1-2 degrees C, I really don't think we're at risk of producing that kind of an effect.

    3.) Even if we presume we are producing a noticable impact, of all the 'dire consequences', the worst I've heard that's even halfway reasonable (i.e. not a 400 ft sea level rise) is a 1 foot increase in sea level. Together with that, however, is a massive increase in habbitable and farmable land, an increase in plant size due to increased CO2 in the atmosphere, and faster and more growth due to increased nitrates (the limiting factor in the ecosystem today).

    Now don't worry, I'm not encouraging a complete deregulation of all pollution-causing activities. I don't like toxic waste being dumped into the rivers any more than the rest of you. I don't even like coal or oil power plants (they have a nasty tendency to release things like sulfer dioxide, lead, mercury, and arsenic). But I would really like to see an end to the rediculous retoric about the world having a 'fever' and 'dying' and such. The lack of an ice shelf in Greenland is not indicative of a 'sick planet', but rather of one that is recovering to pre-Little-Ice-Age temperatures.
     
  17. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    1998 was the highest peak at ~.75C above the baseline. Last year was another peak at ~.6C above the baseline. If you look at the anomaly data between 1998 and 2008, you see very few months below the baseline temperature. If you want to call that a cooling trend since 1998, fine, but I'd call it a warming trend vs. the baseline.
     
  18. NOG (No Other Gods)

    NOG (No Other Gods) Going to church doesn't make you a Christian

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    Well, considering that:
    1.) the base line seems to have been chosen rather arbitrarily, I don't think the individual numbers above the baseline are the important part, plus
    2.) the important part is actually the relationship between the various numbers (i.e. do we see an increase or a decrease), which leads us to
    3.) a plateau, as predicted in models from the early '90s and as opposed to the latest models, not an overall cooling trend.
     
  19. Drew

    Drew Arrogant, contemptible, and obnoxious Adored Veteran

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    I've stayed out so far, and will continue to stay out after commenting here. There is still a consensus within the global climatological community. Sure, some people disagree with parts of it, but that is for the climatological community to work out amongst themselves. Global warming is not and should not be a political issue. The only question politicians should be asking is "where does the burden of proof lie?" Does it lie with the vast majority warning dire consequences for inaction or does it lie with the small minority arguing that nothing needs to be done? It comes down to a simple risk/reward scenario.

    If we listen to the majority and they are right, we may well avoid (or at least stave off) a catastrophe. If we listen to the majority and they are wrong, we have lower pollution and cleaner air. We lose little to nothing. If we listen to the minority and they are right, we also lose nothing, but if they are wrong and we do nothing, the consequences will be dire.

    It is reckless, arrogant, and downright stupid to politicize this issue. Let the climatological community work it out and, when the consensus recommendation changes, our governments should change accordingly. Until then, the governments of the world should shut up, stop bickering, and act in line with the climatological community's recommendations.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2008
  20. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

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    It's rather amusing that you make such an assertion, because that is the point of choosing a baseline period.

    If you look at the GISS data, the baseline period was chosen at 1951 which appears to me (looking at the data over the range from 1880 to the present) to be the midpoint of an increasing temperature trend; i.e. temperatures prior to 1951 are generally cooler while temperatures after 1951 are generally warmer while the coldest and warmest points seem to be about the same distance from the base. Doesn't seem all that arbitrary to me.

    Finally, a decade is not a very long period to look at when it comes to climate.

    Now, I'm still skeptical when it comes to the accuracy of the long-term temperature data, but that doesn't mean I can ignore it.
     
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